Hillary Best Candidate for Stock Market

Hillary Best Candidate for Stock Market
Illustrated of Hillary Clinton
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NEW YORK - Recently, investors saying loudly and clearly: We want Hillary Clinton to win. And the probably nearly all the "market metrics" point to a Clinton victory.

Investors are no longer gobbling up gold, which usually happens when they are worried. The price has fallen 4 percent in October alone, as Donald Trump's poll numbers have tanked.
Similarly, the Mexican peso jumped sharply after the release of the Access Hollywood tape of Trump's vulgar comments about women on October 7. The peso has stayed elevated ever since, a bad sign for Trump.

But the biggest indication of just how much sentiment has shifted in favor of Clinton comes from investor polling data.

Sixty percent of investors now say Clinton is the best candidate for the stock market, according to a new ETrade poll of nearly 1,000 active investors versus only 40 percent for Trump.

The survey was conducted October 1 through October 10. It's a sharp bounce from the second quarter when E*Trade found only 28 percent of investors believed Clinton would be best for stocks -- barely ahead of Trump's 25 percent at the time.
Gold is now trading below $1,300 an ounce for the first time since June. The yellow metal has been sinking ever since the first US presidential debate in late September. It's down 4 percent so far in October.

There are several factors that could be driving gold down. Key among them is that investors aren't as worried anymore about a surprise Trump win along the lines of what happened with Brexit.

Moody's Analytics has a special model to predict who will end up in the White House based on how the economy is doing. It has correctly predicted the winner every election since 1980.
Hillary Best Candidate for Stock Market
This year, the model points to a solid Clinton win because of a relatively healthy economy. Only two factors could change the model enough to point to a Trump victory: if gas prices spike above $3 a gallon, or President Obama's approval rating falls substantially. Neither seems likely to happen. (The US average gas price is sitting at $2.24 a gallon, according to the AAA fuel gauge)

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